Posted on December 12, 2021 at 1:00 p.m.
Testing Cycles and Cases
Testing Cycles 101
There is a point with testing cycles above which the tests likely will produce misleading results about infectiousness. Watch the video below and learn.
COVID Diagnosis with PCR | Misinterpreting results | Cycle threshold explained – YouTube
As you would have seen and heard in the video PCR testing while a powerful tool in the fight against Covid-19, if not used appropriately serves to hamper the real fight against Covid and leads to unnecessary fear in the public at large.
In the chart below and as explained in the video the likelihood of infectiousness falls off the higher the cycle counts leading to positive tests because small amounts of the virus are present but likely not enough to infect others.
Now to the Testing in Ontario
From my website https://lisaparentcovid-19.ca every day I post the number of tests and the positivity rate off the Ontario Government webpage Testing volumes and results | COVID-19 (coronavirus) in Ontario and I again am seeing a trend that matches one from last winter. It seems that the positivity rate grows in relation to the number of infections being reported each day.
Spring of 2021
First let me show you what I found earlier this year with regard to the positivity rate.
As you will see from the graph the positivity rate at the beginning of April jumped substantially from below 6% to nearly 11% with the jump conveniently coinciding with the decision by the government of Ontario to lockdown the Province. Later on May 20 the Premier announced the reopening strategy for the Province and low and behold coinciding with that announcement the positivity rates dramatically dropped below 6% once again.
Now to Today
I am seeing the beginning of the same disturbing trend with the positivity numbers again. This is at a time when there is again talk that maybe we need to roll back the opening of the Province. Are we seeing the same game plan played over again?
To the current numbers from today December 12, 2021.
Just a few short days ago on November 3rd the positivity rate was only 1.5%. But today December 12th it has jumped to 5.4%. And in lock step with the increases in the positivity rate the Active Case numbers have climbed.
As one can see from the two graphs the Active Cases are growing in direct relation to the increase in the positivity rate. As discussed in the video is this increase in published Active Cases true infections or are they the result of misleading PCR results?
Conclusion
Have Public Health Ontario and Ontario Labs increased the PCR testing cycles or do we have truly new infections?
Before we end up in another lockdown likely after Christmas an independent investigation needs to be made of our lab testing to ensure that the cycle counts are in the range that produces true infectiousness and not results simply designed to support the reported “New Cases” and to justify another lockdown.